|
|
David
Seaton's Energy Links® Editorial There
are so many fracture lines intersecting in the world at this moment that
an astrologer might make better predictions about 2004 than any political
analyst could. I'm no "burning bush" and space is short, but here are some
things to watch in the coming year. Free elections in Iraq may lead to
the creation of a defacto "Shiiastan" or 'land of the Shia' including southern
Iraq, with its massive oil reserves, Iran, and more ominously Saudi Arabia's
oil-rich Eastern Province where the Shia are in the majority. As an "undesirable
outcome" in Iraq, this would rival the CIA's arming and training bin Laden
in the 1980's. I'm afraid relations with the Muslim world will continue
to deteriorate in 2004. I believe we can co-exist peacefully with Islam,
simply because we have done so for centuries. However globalization now
wants to "pasteurize" and "digest" Islam and I think Islam is "indigestible"
on these terms. The more pressure applied to the Islamic world in order
to neutralize its peculiarities the more violence will be produced... We
really have to decide who is the more fundamentalist; the followers of
bin Laden or our own neo-liberal and neo-conservative "one size fits all"
globalizers. Another globalization story to watch: The massive outsourcing
of the highly paid jobs of highly educated office workers from the first
to the third world. This is political dynamite. The starting annual salary
for top, English speaking, electrical engineering graduates in India is
$10,000 - compared with $80,000 in the United States. After the former
British Empire, only the former Spanish Empire presents such magnificent
opportunities of asymmetry. A final and easy prediction: The coming US
presidential election will be the hardest fought and ugliest in modern
times... and Bush will probably win. A Happy New Year to all my readers.
David Seaton
|
| U.S.
oil companies are ready to rush back to Libya's fields - San Antonio Express-News
For more than 17 years, U.S. oil companies have chafed at sanctions that forced them to abandon prolific oil fields in the Libyan desert. Now, after Libya's surprise agreement to abort its programs for weapons of mass destruction, the Americans can foresee their return to a country of promising and barely explored petroleum wealth. The Libyan government, desperate to boost oil exports, is eager to have them back. Libya now produces less than half of its 1970 peak of 3.3 million barrels a day. With fresh investment, analysts say it could again become a leading producer. The announcement last week of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's diplomatic concession could provide the opening both sides have been seeking. "This recent development has certainly made things more positive, and the outlook is more promising for a potential lifting of sanctions sooner rather than later," Occidental Petroleum Corp. spokesman Larry Meriage said. Los Angeles-based Occidental is one of four U.S. oil majors that withdrew from Libya in June 1986, two months after U.S. jets bombed one of Gadhafi's palaces in retaliation for the death of U.S. soldiers in a bombing in Germany. Occidental made several large discoveries there, with reserves totaling almost 4 billion barrels, and Libya's light, low-sulfur crude commanded a premium on world markets. "These discoveries really launched Occidental into the international arena. Before that, we were primarily a domestic oil company," Meriage said. Three of Occidental's rivals — Amerada Hess Corp. of New York and the Houston-based companies Marathon Oil Co. and Conoco Inc. — produced oil jointly as the Oasis Group together with Libya's state-run National Oil Co. Before sanctions took effect, the partners pumped about 850,000 barrels of oil a day. All four U.S. companies insist they have abided by sanctions against the North African country but suggest they would hurry back if given the chance — although so far U.S. officials haven't said if or when they will lift the restrictions. "The events that took place Friday are very encouraging," Marathon spokeswoman Susan Richardson said. Sam Falcona of ConocoPhillipps, Conoco's successor, described Libya's overture as "a positive step." Despite Libyans' resentment at U.S. sanctions, they never seized the property and installations the American oil companies left behind. Analysts say that's because the country values the technical expertise and financial resources of U.S. firms. "They have always said, 'Come back. We are looking after your assets.' They did not nationalize them," Manouchehr Takin, an analyst at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London, said. Click here to read more Contents |
| Insurgents
Blamed in Iraq Oil Fires - Los Angeles Times
Iraqi officials blamed loyalists of jailed former leader Saddam Hussein on Sunday for sabotaging a vital stretch of oil pipeline and blowing up a huge gasoline storage tank in Baghdad. The attacks that set the north-south oil pipeline ablaze in at least four places threatened to worsen an already dire shortage of gasoline that has angered Iraqi drivers and fomented criticism that the U.S.-led coalition is mismanaging postwar reconstruction. Coalition troops, meanwhile, continued raids through insurgent strongholds along the border with Syria and in the so-called Sunni Triangle that was Hussein's power base, arresting hundreds of Iraqis accused of attacking U.S.-led forces. An Iraqi woman was killed in one of the raids and two others injured when troops used explosives to blow in the door of a house in Rawah, along the western border, coalition officials reported. Billowing fireballs erupted from the pipeline in the Mashahidah area 15 miles northwest of Baghdad after insurgents fired rocket-propelled grenades into the facility Saturday. Rebel artillery also was cited as the cause of a gasoline tanker explosion later in the day in a southern area of the capital that sent 2.6 million gallons of gasoline up in flames. Oil Ministry spokesman Assim Jihad said the fires resulted from "acts of sabotage" but denied that the lost fuel and pipeline disruptions would worsen the nearly month-old gas crisis that has motorists lined up for as long as 12 hours to fill their tanks. Iraq can import more gasoline to make up for the losses, Jihad said. Iraqi and U.S. officials with the Coalition Provisional Authority have been insisting that the gas crisis will be resolved in a few days and that much of the problem results from consumer panic and hoarding. Coalition troops have been detaining Iraqis selling gasoline for up to $1.85 a gallon — about 50 times the pump price. The Oil Ministry instituted rationing on Thursday. The sabotage of the oil infrastructure — the 83rd incident of its kind since April, said Jihad — capped a week in which insurgent attacks on coalition forces dropped significantly following Hussein's Dec. 13 capture. One U.S. soldier was killed in the past week, compared with an average of six weekly since President Bush declared the end of major combat May 1. Military officials of the coalition have warned that troops must remain vigilant as the threat of attacks remains high and insurgents are probably holed up this week due to widespread raids in the Sunni Triangle. Iraqi and U.S. officials have also warned of the likelihood of insurgent provocations over Christmas. Click here to read more Contents |
| For
Oil Contracts, Russia Will Waive Most of Iraq's $8 Billion Debt - New York
Times
Russia has offered to forgive more than half of Iraq's $8 billion debt to Russia, officials of Iraq's interim government said here on Monday, after the Iraqis signaled that Russia would have the chance to revive oil contracts signed during the Saddam Hussein era. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the current president of the American-backed Iraqi Governing Council, said President Vladimir V. Putin proposed in talks with the Iraqis to wipe out 65 percent of Iraq's Soviet-era debts to Russia in return for favorable treatment of Russian oil and other companies. "We received a generous promise to write off the debt, or at least a part of it," Mr. Hakim said after meeting with Mr. Putin in the Kremlin. In return, "we will be open to all Russian companies," he added. "Russia said it is willing to consider the write-off of the rest of the debt if it received beneficial treatment in terms of oil contracts," added Jalal Talabani, a member of the Iraqi delegation. Russia, one of Iraq's biggest creditors, wants the write-off negotiated through the Paris Club, a group of 19 creditor nations that negotiates debt. "Iraq is a free market," said Mr. Talabani. "All companies and countries will be considered." However, the Iraqis singled out the oil giant Lukoil — Russia's No. 2 oil producer — for a meeting on Monday, as it tries to win back rights to the rich West Qurna oil field in Iraq. Lukoil's chairman, Vagit Alekperov, told Interfax News Agency that the high-profile Iraq visit "makes us certain that talks will begin soon with the Iraqi oil minister and will be successful." A delegation of Lukoil officials, including the president of Lukoil's overseas operation, Andrei Kuzyaev, will hold talks in Baghdad on Dec. 29 with the oil minister, Ibrahim Bahr al-Ulum, focusing on the West Qurna project. The original agreement on exploring the field, ended by Mr. Hussein just prior to the invasion of Iraq in March, was signed in March 1997. The United States has been seeking international support to reduce Iraq's roughly $125 billion in debt, despite the Defense Department's recent exclusion of countries like France, Germany and Russia, which opposed the war in Iraq, as prime bidders on reconstruction contracts. President Bush has said he is open to discussing access to other contracts. Click here to read more Contents |
| Oil
Seen Falling as Iraq, Russia Raise Output - Moscow Times
Oil prices will probably fall about 13 percent next year, the first drop in two years, as Iraq and non-OPEC countries such as Russia increase production, according to a survey of 27 analysts. Crude futures in New York have averaged 18 percent higher this year than last and are 19 percent above 2001 levels. The rally, partly on an oil strike in Venezuela and the war in Iraq, boosted revenues for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and earnings for companies such as BP. "We're looking at lower prices in 2004, but not by much," said Leo Drollas, deputy executive director of the Center for Global Energy Studies, founded by former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani. "Oil was very high this year as demand was boosted by special factors." Crude futures rose to a nine-month high of more than $33 per barrel last week on the New York Mercantile Exchange, leading U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham to warn about possible damage to the global economic recovery. New York futures are forecast to average $26.81 in 2004, compared with $30.96 so far this year, according to the Bloomberg survey. Current prices are "very high," Abraham said in response to questions from reporters at a conference in Washington. "Obviously the higher the cost of essential commodities that does have an impact." The U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 8.2 percent in the third quarter, the fastest since 1984. Growth will probably slow to about 4 percent in the current quarter, according to the median forecast from economists surveyed. Brent crude oil, Europe's price benchmark, rose to more than $30 a barrel last week. Prices for next year are estimated at an average of $25.53 a barrel, compared with $28.45 so far this year, according to the survey, conducted Dec. 12 to 18. For the first quarter, analysts predict Brent will average $27.39. West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, is expected to average $28.77 in the period, the survey showed. The full-year forecast for Brent crude is 4.5 percent lower than the average of the most recent four-year period, and 44 percent above the previous four, 1996-1999. OPEC, whose 11 members supply a third of the world's oil, targets a price of $22 to $28 per barrel for an index of seven crude oils it monitors. The price was $30.73 on Friday. Ministers from OPEC member states have said they are content to let the price stay at the top of the range, arguing that a weaker dollar has reduced the purchasing power of oil revenues. The dollar has dropped 15 percent against the euro this year. "Prices are on the high side, but not too high if you bear in mind the recent decline of the dollar," Obaid bin Saif al- Nasseri, the United Arab Emirates' oil minister, said Dec. 13 in Cairo. "What we've gained in the oil price we have lost in the dollar's decline." Click here to read more Contents |
| Court
extends investigative custody for top Yukos shareholder - San Francisco
Chronicle
A Moscow court on Friday approved prosecutors' request to keep a top shareholder of Russia's largest oil company, Yukos, in custody for another three months pending his trial on fraud charges. Platon Lebedev, chairman of Group Menatep, a holding company with a large stake in Yukos and himself one of Yukos' top shareholders, has been in jail since his arrest July 2 on charges of defrauding the state in a 1994 privatization deal and tax evasion. He had been ordered held until Dec. 30, and prosecutors won a decision Friday in a closed hearing for him to remain in custody until March 30, the Interfax and ITAR-Tass news agencies reported, citing Lebedev attorney Anton Drel. Lebedev's arrest marked the start of a wide-ranging probe against Yukos which has been widely seen as a Kremlin-instigated effort to curb political ambitions of its billionaire founder, Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Khodorkovsky, whom Forbes magazine named Russia's richest man with an estimated fortune of $8 billion, has funded opposition parties in parliament, provoking the Kremlin's ire. He has been in jail since Oct. 25 on fraud and tax-evasion charges and the same court considering Lebedev's case ordered Tuesday that he remain in custody for another three months. Khodorkovsky and Lebedev have denied all accusations, and their lawyers complained of the court's bias in prosecutors' favor. Courts have rejected numerous appeals by Yukos lawyers in sessions closed to news media. The probe has spooked investors, sparking fears that the government might launch a broad revision of controversial post-Soviet privatization. President Vladimir Putin has denied political motives behind the probe and said the government wasn't going to go back on privatization. However, Putin said this week that other tycoons who had broken the law during privatization could face punishment. Click here to read more Contents |
| Pain
or Gain? Crunch Time Looms for Sao Tome Oil - Reuters
It sounds like every poor country's dream: strike oil, get rich, wave want goodbye. But on the West African Sao Tome islands, where a big influx of cash from crude may be just months away, fears are growing that the money may cause more problems than it solves. Jolted by a coup attempt linked to the promise of new-found wealth and surrounded by neighbors where oil has fueled chaos, many islanders wonder if their government is prepared for the shock. "Unless we put things in some order now this will be a total mess," said Carlos Tiny, a one-time presidential candidate on the former Portuguese colony. "So far, things are not in order." Time is short. The U.S. oil major ChevronTexaco says it is poised to win an offshore oil exploration bloc with a bid of $123 million, grabbing a chunk of one of Africa's hottest prospecting zones. For islands which typically export about $4 million worth of goods a year, much of it cocoa and bananas, oil fees represent vast amounts of money that could transform the economy. The islands simmer with intrigue spurred by the increase in the financial stakes for those in office. Interest from foreign players from Nigeria to the United States in an estimated 6 billion to 11 billion barrels of crude has further muddied the waters of the island's volatile politics, putting a little-known backwater on the strategic map. The government says it is in control and preparing to manage the inflow of money, but the next few months may yield clues as to whether Sao Tome is ready for a better life or will succumb to the curse of so many oil-rich African states. The continent is littered with examples of how not to do it -- some just a few hundred miles from the volcanic peaks of Sao Tome, where many of its 140,000 people live without running water or electricity. Civil wars have wrought havoc in oil exporters Angola and the Congo Republic, while Nigerians -- jointly managing Sao Tome's exploration zone -- blame oil as the source of much of the corruption blighting their country. Anxious to learn from others' mistakes, Sao Tome is working with the World Bank to set up measures to deal with the cash, such as creating a fund to smooth revenue flows and save money for when the oil runs out. Click here to read more Contents |
|
Remember that links from newspapers and magazines online are "here today and gone tomorrow": our advice is to download them into a folder on your desktop immediately or better yet print them out for reading when you have time. Don't leave them till you get around to them... They may have changed by then! |