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| David
Seaton's Energy Links® Editorial
Can democracy be created in a test tube?
This is the fundamental question facing the United States in Iraq and endless
questions spring from it.
Can the final draft of a democratic constitution be written in a country with little or no democratic traditions, under military pressure and with "red lines" where some issues of culture, religion and national identity cannot be openly debated? How long will such a document survive untouched, when and if that pressure is ever removed? Will democracy, expressed as "one person, one vote", lead to such a dramatic loss of influence by a military/political/religious minority caste who have controlled the country for centuries - in this case the Sunnis - that they become a permanent element of subversion and reaction. More importantly for American interests would the will of the people in Iraq expressed in free and open elections lead eventually to the creation of a defacto "Shiiastan" or 'land of the Shia'? This "Shiiastan" would comprise the area of Shia influence taking in Iran, southern Iraq, with its massive oil reserves, and more ominously Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province where the Shia are in the majority. Recent statements by Iraqi Shiite leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the current president of the Interim Governing Council and long time exile in Iran, endorsing Iraqi war reparations payment to Iran lend weight to these fears. The neo-conservative "selling proposition" that led to the war is that by creating a liberal democracy there, by opening its economy and financial markets to foreign control and thus connecting it to the globalization process, Islam and Arab nationalism would no longer threaten peace, Israel or western interests in the region. To be skeptical about the future success of this radical policy is to risk being branded as Euro-centric or a racist by these sorcerers aprentices. With Saddam Hussein in captivity, the United States is under strong pressure locally, in the United States itself and internationally to produce a sovereign democratic government in Iraq. Will that government have any chance of keeping control of the country or will the situation spiral into something resembling the civil war in Lebanon? David Seaton
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| Russia's
oil industry braces for scrutiny - Seattle Post-Intelligencer
The day before former Yukos oil head Mikhail Khodorkovsky was arrested at gunpoint on charges of tax evasion and fraud, Russia's lower house of parliament passed with unusual speed a measure that eliminated the cap on export duties for fuel oil products. It was a two-pronged attack, analysts say. While the arrest grabbed all the attention, the law may have packed the bigger punch, slamming an entire industry and sending a clear signal of what lies ahead. Russia's oil giants must brace themselves for higher taxes, more scrutiny and less influence in coming years, analysts said. The post-Soviet era when the aggressively capitalistic companies could pocket profits and count on Kremlin silence is drawing to a close. "The government is on the offensive, and the oil companies are going to be on the defensive for quite a while now," said Vitaly Yermakov, an oil analyst with the Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Moscow. Click here to read more Contents |
| Putin
calls for higher taxes for oil industry - Houston Chronicle
Russian President Vladimir Putin today threw his support behind a move to raise taxes on the oil industry to help generate "balanced" economic growth but said any hike would not bring in more than $3 billion. Putin, speaking in an annual televised phone-in program, also signalled he had little patience with big business interests who attempted to derail government legislation in the Duma (lower house). Most Russian oil companies are privately owned. Oil firms with good quality reserves should be prepared to pay higher taxes, while firms with depleted oilfields and lower quality reserves should face a lower tax bill, he said. "There are more and more talks about more severe taxation of the oil industry. And I can see some sense in it... We need to balance the development of different sectors of our economy. But we should do it (raise taxes) very carefully," said Putin. Russia's oil industry, the second largest in the world after Saudi Arabia, has been growing for five consecutive years with expansion running at 10 percent in 2003. But the rest of the economy has lagged behind the oil sector's robust growth leaving the country dangerously exposed if crude prices take a dive. International financial institutions have warned Russia is not doing enough to diversify its economy. Oil, gas and metal industries account for 75 percent of state revenues. Click here to read more Contents |
| Russian
Oil Merger Collapses - Voice of America
Russian oil giant Yukos says it has agreed in principle to reverse a planned merger with rival Sibneft. A Yukos spokesman in Moscow says no legal documents on the breakup have been signed yet, and that it may take several months for the merger reversal to be completed. A top Yukos official, Yuri Beilin, says that until the reversal is finalized, Yukos will continue to act as if the merger had been completed. This includes considering Sibneft's shares as its own assets. Mr. Beilin says neither Yukos or Sibneft will be required to pay a $1 billion breakup penalty. Yukos, however, will seek interest on the $3 billion it paid for Sibneft shares when the money is returned. The $11 billion merger was suspended November 28 when Sibneft announced it was backing out. Sibneft shareholders apparently had grown wary of the deal after Yukos chief Mikhail Khodorkovsky was arrested October 25 on charges of fraud and tax evasion. Click here to read more Contents |
| China
To Add 52M Tons Crude Oil Refining Capacity By 2010 - Dow Jones
China will boost its crude refining capacity by 52 million metric tons to reach 332 million tons a year by 2010, to cater to the country's ever increasing demand for oil products, a China-based oil industry official said Tuesday. Of the new capacity, three refineries totaling 30 million tons will be built on greenfield sites, while the rest will involve expansions at six existing refineries, the official said. Based on information announced by PetroChina Co. (PTR), China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (SNP), or Sinopec Corp., and China National Offshore Oil Corp., only 14.3 million tons of the new capacity will involve foreign capital, he said. Eight of the nine refineries to be built or expanded are located in coastal areas with access to imported crude oil, he said. Of the total new capacity, 32 million tons will be built and invested by Sinopec, 8 million tons by PetroChina and 12 million tons by CNOOC, he said. CNOOC has said it will build a 12 million ton/year refinery by 2007 - China's largest greenfield refinery construction so far - in Huizhou city of the southern Guangdong province. China now has 280 million tons/year of refining capacity, of which 30 million-40 million tons/year is surplus. The capacity of refineries in China averages 7 million tons/year, with some as small as 1 million tons/year. The government is set to close some small refineries to make room for larger ones, the official said. As China will need to import more crude oil to meet growing consumption amid a domestic supply shortage, most of the capacity expansions will be geared toward using foreign crude, he said. China's petroleum demand is expected to increase by an average 12% a year to reach 400 million tons by 2020, spurred by robust economic development. Click here to read more Contents |
| Arab
states possess 65 % of world oil reserves - Arabic News
The Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Nueimi in his capacity as Chairman of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) spoke about the Arab states' oil wealth and its important contribution to the global oil industry. The Arab states owns 65 % of the world oil reserves, he said. He put the Arab daily production of oil at 22 million barrels, nearly one fourth of the world oil output. Al-Noeimi yesterday called on Iraq to support the activities of OAPEC to help it achieve its goals in serving the Arab nation. In his inaugural address before the 71st session of the OAPEC Ministerial Council that opened in Cairo Saturday, the Saudi Minister urged the Arab states to help Iraq in restoring its distinguished position in the Arab oil industry. Regretting the absence of Iraq's oil minister, he stressed the importance of Iraq's participation in such Arab gatherings. The OAPEC Chairman estimated at $ 200 billion, the annual volume of Arab states' income from oil. He said that work must continue to increase world demand on oil and to make the Arab economies less dependent on it. Click here to read more Contents |
| Oil
Rebounds to Near 9-Month High - Reuters
Oil prices rebounded to nine-month highs Thursday amid a rally in heating oil prices on cold weather forecasts in the U.S. Weather forecaster Meteorlogix predicted "a pattern featuring more persistent cold weather over the central and eastern United States" for Dec. 25-31. New York crude futures rose 23 cents to $33.58 a barrel after hitting $33.80, the highest front month level since March 18. London Brent was up 15 cents at $30.74 a barrel. Oil has jumped around $3 in barely three weeks on falls in U.S. crude and natural gas stocks and colder-than-normal weather in the U.S. Northeast -- the world's biggest consumer of heating oil. U.S. crude inventories have fallen for the last four weeks to drop 11.6 million below levels a year ago and the lowest December level since the government began tracking the data in 1982. Distillates stocks, including heating oil, have dropped too, sharpening fears over fuel supplies with more U.S. cold weather forecast for the second half of this month. Oil prices have risen nearly $6 a barrel, or more than 20 percent, since OPEC's September decision to cut supply by 3.5 percent. Some OPEC ministers warn the cartel may cut supply again in February on fears of a surplus once demand declines after the northern winter. Click here to read more Contents |
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