David Seaton's Energy Links®

"The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil.'' 

Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani


 

Table of Contents
Editorial
*Oil prices climbing back up - The London Free Press -Ontario
*OPEC says world oil market adequately supplied - Turkish Press
*Senator Asks for Review of Oil Plan Review - Associated Press
*Oil Rises on Global Production Outages - Reuters
*At a Crucial Oil Juncture, a Russian Calls on China - New York Times
*Oil prices rise on Iraq sabotage - Trinidad & Tobago Express
*Mideast and South Asia meet to direct oil policy - Houston Chronicle


David Seaton's Energy Links® Editorial - Events and Trends for 2005
The New Year is a time for the unwise pundit to make reckless predictions which events tend to sweep away in tsunami-like fashion. I shall try not to predict very much then, rather more prudently to try to lay out what I consider the general tendency to be in 2005.

The word for 2005 would be "entropy," which Webster’s dictionary defines as "a process of degradation or running down or a trend to disorder"

There is a saying in Spanish, "Él que mucho abarca poco aprieta" which would translate into the language of Shakespeare roughly as "one armed paper hangers should not scratch themselves when papering".

Here at the "End of History," the "New World Order" is simply trying to "herd cats" and the whole effort is falling apart just as the poet Yeats warned us that things are prone to.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all convictions, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

(The Second Coming -- W. B. Yeats)

The news is full of the daily carnage in Iraq, in Israel/Palestine and Islamic militancy, this "war on terrorism", is supposed to be what defines our historical moment. However, I get the feeling that Islamic terrorism is just the most spectacular manifestation of the phenomenon that allows the Argentineans to thumb their noses at the IMF or the Chinese to subsidize Fidel Castro with dollars earned in Wal-Mart or Putin to sell his missiles to Syria in response to the Ukraine business (that one is far from finished). Why not throw the open-source movement in ("communists!" Bill Gates says) for good measure?

I have only one caveat in relativising Islamic terror.

On January 20th Bush’s second administration is to be inaugurated in Washington. That a President of the United States would be sworn in January of 2005 with all the government, congress, dignitaries and diplomatic corps in attendance is as easy to predict as an eclipse of the sun. The ceremony, its locations and ritual movements are as predictable as those of a high mass at Saint Peter’s in Rome. To have appropriately placed some large explosive devise in Washington with the 2005 inauguration in mind, before the 11th of September of 2001, would have been quite possible. If this, the ultimate target, passes without incident, I for one will become a bit revisionist about Al Qaeda and begin to lend my ears to those conspiracy theorists who claim that the "war on terrorism" is just a ruse of Bush’s in order to tighten his control on America and the world. David Seaton


David Seaton's Energy Links®

Oil prices climbing back up - The London Free Press -Ontario
Crude oil futures rose for the fourth day in a row yesterday, to a level unseen since late November. Traders attributed the six-per-cent rise in the past week to supply snags and expectations of colder weather. Light sweet crude for February delivery was up 34 cents to settle at $48.38 US a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A week earlier, oil futures were at $45.43 a barrel. Other factors contributing to higher prices were the strong U.S. dollar, the possibility of another OPEC production cut and fears of more attacks against oil infrastructure in Iraq, analysts said. "Fundamentally, I do think there's support for these prices," said Jamal Qureshi, an oil-markets analyst at Washington-based PFC Energy. The consultancy estimates that average daily demand of 84.5 million barrels a day will exceed global production by about a million barrels a day, requiring fuel to be pulled from storage to meet growing consumption, particularly in Asia and the United States. Qureshi said he expects the supply-demand balance to be reversed by the second quarter, when demand typically slows down, and at that point he wouldn't be surprised to see considerably lower prices. "We're going to see a lot of that kind of volatility," he said. Still, some analysts said they believe the latest price run-up exaggerates the actual risks in the market and that supplies are not as tight as traders suggest. Robert W. Baird & Co. oil analyst George Gaspar conceded that the global supply cushion is "thin," but he said slower demand growth in 2005 and higher production from non-OPEC countries will ease some of the tensions of 2004. Global oil demand is expected to rise about 1.8 per cent to 84 million barrels a day in 2005, compared with a rise of 3.3 per cent in 2004, due to a slowdown in economic expansion. "I think there's an awful lot of hype in the oil market," Gaspar said.
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OPEC says world oil market adequately supplied - Turkish Press
Acting OPEC Secretary General Adnan Shihab-Eldin said the world oil market is adequately supplied with crude, despite supply concerns and the expectation of colder weather in the northern hemisphere. The 11-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countires is expected to consider cuts in production when it meets in Vienna on January 30, and at another meeting to be held in March. "At these meetings, OPEC ministers will decide what measures should be taken to prepare for the second quarter when demand typically declines," Shihab-Eldin said, in a statement released at the powerful cartel's headquarters in Vienna. Shihab-Eldin reiterated OPEC's commitment to ensure adequate supplies and said that OPEC "stands ready to take the necessary decisions to maintain market stability." Shihab-Eldin said declining oil prices "as mild winter weather (came) and ample OPEC supply of close to 30 million barrels per day (bpd) over the last three months of the year have allowed current supply to not only meet demand but also produce a contra-seasonal build in commercial crude oil stocks to levels at or above the five-year year average." He said that these efforts had resulted in a substantial moderation in crude oil prices although prices have edged back up since the beginning of January. This was due to "seasonal market characteristics, such as the shift towards colder weather in the northern hemisphere and a related decline in US crude and heating oil inventories. "Supply disruptions in the North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Nigeria and Iraq have also played a role," Shihab-Eldin said. But he said that despite concerns about winter conditions, "global oil supply, particularly OPEC output, remains strong and more than adequate to meet expected demand." Oil prices hovered close to six-week highs on Friday amid renewed worries over US winter fuel stocks, the prospect of OPEC production cuts and supply problems in the North Sea. New York's main oil contract, light sweet crude for delivery in February, stood at 47.85 dollars a barrel in electronic deals down 19 cents from Thursday's close of 48.04 dollars -- the highest level since November 30. The price of Brent North Sea crude oil for February rose 21 cents to 45.00 dollars a barrel, also trading at six-week highs. US oil imports have been falling steadily since early December, suggesting that the crude oil market is tighter than previously thought, he said. "OPEC cut output and we had a lot of production problems coming in at the same time: in Iraq, in the North Sea, in the Gulf of Mexico, where US production is still well below normal levels after the hurricanes. All these things add together and start to paint a tighter picture for crude." OPEC agreed in Cairo last month to reduce production by one million barrels a day from the start of 2005 to bring the group closer to its official output ceiling of 27 million barrels. OPEC ministers said then that they were ready to reduce output again if needed to mop up excess supply in anticipation of a seasonal downturn in demand as the northern hemisphere winter ends.
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Senator Asks for Review of Oil Plan Review - Associated Press
A U.S. senator has asked the U.S. Government Accountability Office to review contingency plans in the event of a drop in Venezuelan oil production, the senator's press secretary said Thursday. "We must make sure that all contingencies are in place to mitigate the effects of a significant shortfall of Venezuelan oil production," stated the letter by Republican Richard Lugar, which was sent in November. A copy of the letter appeared in Venezuelan daily El Universal Thursday. Lugar said a drastic reduction in Venezuelan oil output "could have serious consequences for our nation's security and for the consumer at the pump." Andy Fisher, Lugar's press secretary, said the U.S. Government Accountability Office has received the letter and is currently putting together a team to study the issue. In the letter, Lugar said the U.S. continues to rely heavily on Venezuelan oil despite warnings from the State Department that Venezuela, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, has ceased to be a trusted fuel supplier. "The State Department has stated at various times that Venezuela has stopped being a trustworthy source of imported energy," the letter said. "Nevertheless, we continue to rely on imports from Venezuela to meet approximately 15 percent of U.S. oil supply." The senator said Venezuela was no longer a trustworthy supplier due to "political instability" over the last two years in the oil-rich South American nation. Lugar cited the effects of a devastating two-month strike that ended in February 2003, after failing to oust Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez as intended. Venezuela's oil production dropped from over 3 million barrels of crude oil per day to under 100,000 barrels a day during the strike. Industry analysts often argue that Venezuela is still pumping less oil than it was prior to the strike while Chavez insists Venezuela is producing more than 3 million barrels per day.
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Oil Rises on Global Production Outages - Reuters
Oil prices rose on Wednesday as outages that have knocked about a million barrels daily from world supply outweighed U.S. government data showing a build in distillate stocks. U.S. crude futures (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) were up 37 cents at $46.05 a barrel while Brent crude (LCOc1: Quote, Profile, Research) in London was up 43 cents at $43.55 a barrel. Global supply outages have lifted prices with output offline in the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea, Nigeria and Iraq. Iraqi exports have been stymied by continued sabotage on its northern pipeline infrastructure and power problems in the south, forcing Baghdad to cut all its February-June Basra Light crude sales contracts by 10 percent, or about 160,000 bpd. Dealers are worried that violence leading up to or following the Jan. 30 elections could further hamper oil flows, singled out as a prime target by al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. The concerns have helped push oil up nearly $3 a barrel since the beginning of the year. Prices had fallen earlier in the day after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, rose 1.9 million barrels, more than expected, to 123 million barrels. Distillate stocks, which are still 8 percent below last year, have risen in the past two weeks as unseasonably mild weather crimped heating demand. "Production held at near-record levels despite the slump in runs, and imports held at a healthy level," said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates. U.S. distillates output the week earlier hit a record average of 4.3 million barrels per day. Forecasts that the U.S. winter will turn chillier than usual toward the end of this month and into February have renewed fears of a possible winter supply crunch. Private forecasters EarthSat said the northeastern United States should experience a colder than normal February and that the first sustained chill was expected to start this weekend. U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 3 million barrels last week to 288.6 million, the EIA said. Stocks are around 7 percent above last year's levels. The output disruptions coincide with OPEC's implementation of its 1 million bpd output cuts from Jan. 1. Top producer Saudi Arabia informed some global customers this week that they could expect even less oil in February than this month. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet on January 30 to discuss whether further cuts may be necessary as the northern winter ends. The group on Wednesday decided to hold the meeting as scheduled even though it clashes with the date of Iraq's elections. Some members say the cartel will consider tightening supply if prices fall below $40 a barrel.
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At a Crucial Oil Juncture, a Russian Calls on China - New York Times
At a time when China and Russia are facing far-reaching choices about their oil trade, Russia's energy minister, Viktor B. Khristenko, made a quiet trip to Beijing over the weekend, people close to the industry said Tuesday. The trip, which was not reported in the Chinese or Russian media, was confirmed by a Western businessman involved in China's oil business and a Russian source close to the embassy, both based in Beijing. Both requested anonymity, citing the sensitivity of their dealings. The executive and official could not shed light on whom Mr. Khristenko met with or what was discussed, but the visit came at a crucial time in energy diplomacy between the two countries, which share a 2,640-mile border and a history of antagonism. Mr. Khristenko's unusually low-key visit took place just days after he announced that Russia was willing to sell China a stake in a major Russian oil producer. The trip also comes after the recent announcement that Russia would route an oil pipeline to the Pacific Coast of Siberia instead of to the Chinese oil hub of Daqing - the route favored by China. Before the visit, Phoenix Television, a satellite television station in Hong Kong that beams into China, reported on its Web site that the purpose of Mr. Khristenko's visit was to discuss these two issues. The station did not cover the visit. The visit, analysts say, was probably as much driven by interwoven business needs as by geopolitical strategy. "Their energy relations have both a commercial and political angle," said Scott Roberts, the China director, based in Beijing, of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a company based in Cambridge, Mass., that analyzes energy industry developments. "China and Russia are complementary in energy, but politics has been a key driver of that relationship." Last week, Mr. Khristenko announced in Moscow that the China National Petroleum Corporation may be offered 20 percent of Yuganskneftegaz, the subsidiary the Russian government confiscated from Yukos and sold to Rosneft, a state-controlled energy company closely linked to the administration of President Vladimir V. Putin. China's possible interest in buying part of Yuganskneftegaz is clear: China has been looking to Russia, with its rich reserves, to help satisfy its growing demand for oil and natural gas, and the company pumps 11 percent of Russia's crude oil. Last year, China's total oil demand grew about 15 percent, to 5.8 million barrels a day, but with domestic production flat, its imports surged by 40 percent. China National Petroleum officials refused to comment on the deal or on Mr. Khristenko's weekend visit. Russian embassy officials in Beijing also declined comment. But in offering the stake, Russia may be trying to soothe China's disappointment over the Putin administration's decision to send a new oil pipeline to the Russian Pacific Coast instead of to China. The planned 1,500-mile oil pipeline would cross Siberia from Angarsk and end in Nakhodka on the Sea of Japan, instead of in Daqing in northeastern China. Japan lobbied the Russian government to favor Nakhodka, to secure oil without possible Chinese interference, and offered $5 billion to build the pipeline if its plan won. The Angarsk-Daqing pipeline would have pumped oil equal to a third of China's current crude imports. "Clearly, it shows Putin's desire to make amends with China," Michelle Billig, a political risk analyst for the PIRA Energy Group, a company based in New York that advises energy investors, referring to the proposed sale of Yukos assets. Russia may still invite China to build a branch pipeline off the main one to pump oil to China, analysts noted. The pipeline will come within 37 miles of the Russian-Chinese border. "I don't think it takes the China option off the table," Ms. Billig said. "A plan is a plan, but until the pipeline is laid, the door is open to what happens to it." Russia has also promised to increase rail shipments of oil to China, she noted. Also, there may be deeper diplomatic motives behind Russia's offer, observers said. The Russian government's dismemberment of Yukos was challenged in a United States court when Yukos applied for bankruptcy protection in Houston, and the American government has criticized the sale of Yuganskneftegaz. The Putin administration may want to draw in China, and possibly India, as cards to use against Western governments, analysts said. Last week the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation of India also said it was interested in buying a portion of Yuganskneftegaz. "My feeling is that this is all about leverage with the U.S.," said a Western energy executive based in Beijing who has frequent dealings with Russian energy concerns. "Russia's trying to use the government of either country to give it support." Russia's oil sector, he noted, does not need the money or technology of either China or India, and the sale made sense only as a diplomatic maneuver. He requested anonymity, citing his frequent dealings with wary Russian and Chinese energy officials. For its part, China may be using its bargaining influence to press for greater access to Russia's oil fields so that it can play a direct part in exploiting Russia's 120 billion or so barrels of known oil reserves. "The key is access to Russia's oil upstream," Mr. Roberts of Cambridge Energy said. "Up until now there's been a bit of a block, and obviously China wants that block removed."
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Oil prices rise on Iraq sabotage - Trinidad & Tobago Express
Oil prices climbed toward $46 a barrel on Monday, bolstered by escalating sabotage at Iraqi oil facilities and the risk that a U.S. cold spell would strain thin winter fuel supplies. U.S. light crude Lc1 rose 49 cents to $45.92 a barrel, building on last week's nearly $2 rise and breaking beyond the market's month-long $40-$45 trading range. London Brent COc1 was up 47 cents at $43.65 a barrel. Prices rose as Iraqi oil officials said that sabotage ahead of the country's January 30 elections has paralysed oil operations in the north of the country, forcing a suspension in refining while export flows remain idle. Attacks in recent days on oil facilities, including export routes and domestic pipelines feeding power stations, have virtually brought Iraq's strategic fields to a halt, they said. Oil facilities in the north have a diminished postwar output capacity of 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), including 500,000 bpd of exports through a pipeline that runs to Turkey's Ceyhan port. Flows through the northern line have been halted since it was attacked on December 18. Sabotage has escalated over the past month, hampering repair operations. Exports from the country's southern oil terminal resumed on Saturday after a one-day power cut. Dealers also remain concerned that a cold snap in the U.S. Northeast, the world's biggest regional consumer of heating oil could strain heating oil inventories that are 9 percent below year-ago levels. "The risk the market priced in November still lies before us, and therefore it is too soon to cut length in heating oil and gas oil in order to focus on U.S. gasoline," said SG Commodities Research in a report. Despite relatively mild weather so far during the northern hemisphere winter, weekend storms on the West Coast and in the mid-Atlantic areas served a reminder that winter is not yet over. Many forecasters expect colder weather by late this month. Prices were also helped by supply disruptions across the globe, with output in the North Sea running 345,000 bpd below normal late last week due to bad weather, while 145,000 bpd of U.S. Gulf of Mexico production remained closed due to damage from last September's Hurricane Ivan. Royal Dutch/Shell restored 42,000 bpd of Nigerian production last Friday after a month-long community dispute, with full flows expected later this week. A total 144,000 bpd had been shut in by the dispute as well as pipeline vandalism. Despite the hitches, U.S. crude oil inventories are well above last year's levels, stoking fears among some OPEC members of a possible price slide when world demand eases after the northern winter. Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said last week that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) might have to cut production quotas if U.S. oil prices fell below $40 a barrel, although he did not see that happening soon. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, is thought unlikely to back cuts if prices are still in the $40s for fear that sustained high fuel costs could hurt global economic growth. OPEC members said last week they had implemented the cartel's 1 million bpd supply cut from Jan. 1.
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Mideast and South Asia meet to direct oil policy - Houston Chronicle
Top Middle East oil producers and energy-hungry consumers in Asia vowed last week to strengthen growing energy ties by reshaping markets to suit regional needs and to promote supply security. Gulf producers and Asia's oil-importing economies face growing mutual dependence, as expanding economies like China and India seek more oil abroad and producers look to rising regional demand to justify investment in higher production capacity. A new Asian energy order could feature long-term supply contracts, local oil futures exchanges and joint strategic stockpiles, officials said at the first meeting of major producers and consumers with a specifically Asian focus. Asia takes some 60 percent of crude exports from the Middle East, and its reliance is set to rise as the region leads global demand growth and its own resources dwindle. In turn, Gulf producers also need to secure supply outlets in consuming nations. Producers like Saudi Arabia offer their joint venture refineries abroad an added element of security by exempting them from supply cuts that arise as a result of OPEC quotas. But investment may not be easy. Gulf producers offer limited access to their upstream industry, while India is unwilling to relinquish control of its state-dominated refining sector. Importers would also like to stamp out the notion of an "Asian premium," whereby they pay more for Saudi and Gulf crude than Western counterparts, by establishing a more liquid regional market. India has also pushed to extend the oil industry's standard one-year supply contracts to five- or 10-year deals. Japan and India are also promoting a joint regional emergency oil stockpile as a cushion against supply disruptions. Nations like Japan and South Korea already have such government inventories, but India and China are only now building theirs.
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