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Table of Contents
Editorial
*If Iran’s referred to UNSC, oil prices would hit $100 - Al Jazeera
*Japan looks to oil sands to ease reliance on Middle East - The Globe and Mail- Calgary
*Vast Alaskan area is opened to oil exploration - The New York Times
*Oil prices fall as traders fear Iran sell-off may have been overdone - AFX News Limited<
*Repsol, Petrobras in Argentina oil exploration deal - Reuters
*China's CNOOC Finds Its Oil - Motley Fool
*State provides details of Venezuelan heating oil aid - Reuters


David Seaton's Energy Links® Editorial - The Abramoff Scandal The first post-holiday week of 2006 was full of turbulence. In the Middle East, Iran began the process leading to enriching uranium that most observers feel is a first step to building an atomic bomb and in Israel the world’s media were poised waiting for Ariel Sharon to wake up. However the biggest bomb was the one ticking in Washington: the Abramoff scandal. More than a political scandal, we might be looking at a tsunami that sweeps away an entire generation of politicians, some to jail and dozens to disgrace and oblivion and which may change the course of American politics for a generation.  
     Until the law caught up with him, Jack Abramoff was, as an editorial in the Guardian put it, the most prominent of an Army of “more than 35,000 professional lobbyists who now spend at least $5bn every year trying to influence the votes of members of the US Congress. It is a system that the former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski has said makes Washington the most corrupt capital in the world.”  This sort of thing has happened before, but not on this scale since the post Civil War period in the late 19th century, when humorist Mark Twain remarked that America had no distinctly native criminal class except its Congress.
    Jack Abramoff is now collaborating with the FBI, which will certainly force many others, like dominos falling, to do the same in order to spend less time in jail. "This is going to grow and multiply," said Bill Mateja, a former top official in the Bush Justice Department who's now a Dallas lawyer, quoted by Knight Ridder Newspapers "If I were on Capitol Hill, I would be shaking in my boots, because if anyone knows where the skeletons are buried, it's Jack Abramoff."

   The sight of so many pompous thieves being brought to justice could be very entertaining; and with Iraq, Iran and the avian flu, the world could certainly use a good laugh.  However as amusing as all this may seem, with nearly 40 million Americans living in poverty and nearly 13 million American children going hungry, the Abramoff scandal is only the tip of tragic iceberg. As Hendrik Hertzberg  wrote in America’s foremost magazine, the New Yorker,   “when the ameliorative functions of government are held in contempt, a single thread ties together upper-income tax cuts, the dismantling of environmental and safety protections, the shredding of the social safety net, the peopling of regulatory agencies with cronies hostile to their purposes, and, finally, outright corruption. If government is seen as a whore, why not treat her like one? All that remains is to fleece the johns and divide the take.” 
David Seaton


David Seaton's Energy Links®

If Iran’s referred to UNSC, oil prices would hit $100 - Al Jazeera
The recent standoff over Tehran's NUCLEAR ACTIVITIES between Iran, the second-biggest producer in the 11-member OPEC, and the world's fourth-largest exporter on one hand and the West on the other hand could result in oil prices reaching unprecedented highs the coming few weeks, an editorial published on MPH magazine stated yesterday. What the U.S. and its European allies shouldn’t ignore is Iran's strategic importance to the United States and the West in general and its role in the global energy equation. Facing mounting international pressure, the Islamic Republic threatened yesterday to stop co-operation with United Nations nuclear inspectors if it's hauled before the Security Council for possible sanctions. U.S. officials, allied with Europe and Canada in taking Iran to the UN body, don’t rule out using the military option to end what they see as “Nuclear Threat”. But one thing is certain: the BUSH administration will never mention oil as a reason for going to war as in the case of IRAQ, when SADDAM HUSSEIN's alleged WMD were cited as the principal justification for the U.S.-led INVASION. "We will not tolerate the construction of a nuclear weapon [by Iran]," is the way the U.S. PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH put it in a 2003 statement. But just as the failure to discover those banned weapons in IRAQ undermined America’s use of WMD as the key justification for its illegal WAR, so its claim that an attack on Iran would be justified because of its alleged nuclear potential should be a subject of a widespread skepticism. The article further stated that experts say that the nuclear standoff over Iraq's nuclear programme and a possible end of Iranian oil exports to the Western market if its nuclear dossier was sent to the UN Security Council and sanctions were imposed, has put a new floor under oil prices at above $60 a barrel. Manouchehr Takin, an analyst at the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies expects that "if Iran stopped exporting it would be a major shock for world markets," warning that oil prices would hit $100 a barrel. "Supply and demand are very tightly balanced, and the world doesn't have the spare production capacity." Iran, which holds 10 percent of the world's oil reserves, produces around four million barrels a day (b/d) and exports 2.4 million-2.6 million b/d, mainly to Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Europe. Iran's crude oil and natural gas reserves are estimated to be worth $ 3,000-bn. The withdrawal of Iran’s oil exports would deal a major blow to world markets, and lead to an overall inadequacy of global spare capacity, estimated at just 1-1.5 million b/d, due to the fact that much of it consists of heavy oil, which few refineries can handle, the article added. Iran remains the "major upside risk on oil prices. Nobody's going to start selling the market aggressively. It's only going to take one headline for prices to move higher," Barclays Capital analyst Paul Horsnell said. Moreover, UK-listed firms could also be directly affected by sanctions, including Royal Dutch Shell and construction group Costain. Also Shell, it has no production in Iran at present, but has started holding talks with National Iranian Oil Company to build a liquefied natural gas plant. Recently oil experts in the U.S. raised concerns over Iran's trading oil in Euros. Iran started trading oil with its European and Asian partners using the Euro which means that without some form of U.S. intervention, the euro will establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade, an obvious encroachment on U.S. dollar supremacy in the international oil market, given the U.S. debt levels.
"Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes...known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few. . . No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare."- James Madison, Political Observations, 1795
Madison’s words should be taken seriously by the American people and world community. The deteriorating situation on the ground in IRAQ portends an even direr situation for American soldiers and the People of the world community - should the U.S. pursue a similar strategy regarding Iran.
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Japan looks to oil sands to ease reliance on Middle East - The Globe and Mail- Calgary
Japanese companies are contemplating investment in Alberta's oil sands, or buying crude from existing projects, the country's Calgary consulate says. A delegation of government officials and energy and trading firms will tour Alberta next week. They will spend a day in Edmonton and three days in Calgary, where they will meet with Canadian energy and pipeline firms, but will not visit Fort McMurray in the north, in the heart of the oil sands industry. "A lot of companies are interested in investing," the consul spokesman said. However, Japan itself would not make any investment, he added. The delegation includes representatives from Japan's Natural Resources Ministry, and executives from Cosmo Oil Co. Ltd., Idemitsu Kosan Co. Ltd., Nippon Oil Corp., Japan Energy Corp., Mitsubishi Co. Ltd. and Mitsui & Co. Ltd. Companies from France and China have only recently invested in the oil sands, but Japan has had a presence for nearly three decades, in the form of Japan Canada Oil Sands Ltd., which operates a 10,000-barrel-a-day project, 50 kilometres south of Fort McMurray. Japanese companies have been hesitant to look at Canada as a new source of supply because of Japan's long-term relationship with Middle Eastern oil producers, said Brian Fowler, director of commercial development for Enbridge Inc.'s $4-billion Gateway pipeline project. The line would connect Edmonton to the West Coast of British Columbia, marking the first time that oil sands crude could move to Asia. Japan imports virtually all of its oil, and of that, nearly 85 per cent comes from Persian Gulf producers, the consul spokesman said. But Japan is hoping to reduce its dependence on Middle East oil, he added. The delegation of Japanese businesses heading to Calgary is one sign of progress, Mr. Fowler said, although he noted that Japan remains at an early stage, in terms of interest, studying the potential supply from the oil sands rather than actively pushing to sign commercial contracts for supply on Gateway. Enbridge has said three-quarters of Gateway's 400,000 barrels a day would likely be exported to Asia. The company has solicited China, Japan and South Korea, receiving the most enthusiasm from rapidly growing China. Enbridge chief executive officer Pat Daniel said his company will be meeting with the Japanese delegation and is hoping to sign up Japanese customers to its Gateway pipeline.
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Vast Alaskan area is opened to oil exploration - The New York Times
The Interior Department has decided to open 389,000 acres of Alaskan lakes, tundra and shoreline to oil exploration, reversing an eight-year-old compromise intended to protect the habitat of hundreds of thousands of migratory birds and the hunting grounds of Inupiat natives who live near the Beaufort Sea. Henri Bisson, state director of the federal Bureau of Land Management in Alaska, said Thursday that the new plan would increase by as much as 2 billion barrels the oil that could be recovered from the northeastern section of the National Petroleum Reserve while providing protections for wildfowl in the summer weeks when they shed their flight feathers and hatch chicks. Critics, including Alaskan natives and groups like the Audubon Society and the Wilderness Society, said the protections would not prevent fragmenting the bird habitat or the disturbance when pipelines are built. There will be plane and helicopter traffic, the critics said, and industrial activity will be a fixture of the collection of lakes and damp tundra that is now empty 150 miles, or 240 kilometers, west of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The fight over the area where wildfowl from California, Japan, Mexico and Russia congregate every summer has been largely overshadowed by the controversy over the Arctic refuge, which remains closed to oil and gas exploration after a Democratic filibuster last month. The two disputes center on protecting caribou, wildfowl and natives' interests. But it is generally agreed that the Teshekpuk Lake area has a particularly important role in the annual migration of tens of thousands of birds like brandt, geese and tundra swans, providing them with relative safety from predators and ample food supplies for the flightless weeks of summer. "We are not persuaded that this provides the protection needed," said the Audubon Society's Alaska director, Stan Senner. "I think our answer, our view, is that waterfowl biologists who know the area have essentially all said that a core goose molting area needs to be protected without fragmentation." Although 242,000 acres, or 98,000 hectares, of the 389,000 can have no surface structures except pipelines, Senner said, the lines and the human monitoring they require will intrude in areas the birds have had to themselves. The final decision, which the Interior Department made public Wednesday, opens seven tracts of land ranging from 45,000 to 60,000 acres that were previously off limits to energy development. "We believe that we have put forward the best environmentally sensitive approach we could take in terms of conducting a viable oil and gas leasing and development opportunity," Bisson said in an interview. "I can't think of anything else we could do to make it more environmentally protective than we have." He added that for the areas north of Teshekpuk Lake, the department would not allow exceptions to its restrictions except for aircraft that have to deviate from agreed-on flight patterns for passengers' safety. Bisson said his estimates of the commercially retrievable oil and the 3.2 trillion cubic feet of retrievable natural gas were based on federal and company data. The estimates, he said, indicate that a compromise reached by Bruce Babbitt, interior secretary in the Clinton administration, that opened all but 13 percent of the reserve to energy production left as much as three-quarters of the recoverable oil in the reserve off limits to drilling.
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Oil prices fall as traders fear Iran sell-off may have been overdone - AFX News Limited
Oil prices were lower as some traders took the view the strong gains seen this week on the back of supply concerns stoked by the standoff with Iran over its nuclear ambitions may have been overdone. At 16.45 pm, February-dated Brent futures were down 17 cents at 62.45 usd a barrel, while US WTI benchmark February-dated contracts were down 9 cents at 63.85 usd. The US contract hit a 3 month high of 65.05 usd yesterday, with prices remaining up for most the day as markets moved into 'crisis mode' over the Iran nuclear dispute, according to Man Financial's Edward Meir. Traders fear Iran, the world's fourth biggest exporter, will cut supply if it is referred to the UN Security Council over the restart of its nuclear enrichment programme. But Alaron Trading analyst Phill Flynn said while the fears are entirely legitimate, it was becoming increasingly unclear whether the dispute will actually lead to a supply disruption. 'I think traders are thinking while the Iran issue has significantly increased the upside risk for oil prices, we may be a bit ahead of ourselves here as we don't know how this dispute is going unfold,' he said. Today Britain, France and Germany, which have called for Iran to be referred to the UN Security Council over its nuclear ambitions, cautioned it is too early to consider imposing sanctions against the Islamic republic. Sucden analyst Sam Tilley said concerns over the Iranian nuclear standoff centre around the fact that 'there is not enough spare capacity in the world to cover any loss of production from Iran'. He added the issue 'is going to keep the market supported until it is resolved'. There was little sign of that today, however, with Iran threatening to end snap inspections of its nuclear sites if it is referred to the council. The EU, US, Russia and China, who are to meet over the crisis in London on Monday, fear Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons but Tehran denies this, insisting its uranium enrichment programme is strictly for civilian purposes. Elsewhere, traders are keeping an eye on Nigeria, where oil major Shell said yesterday it was losing some 226,000 barrel per day after one of its major pipelines was sabotaged and four foreign oil workers abducted. Shell has warned its customers crude oil exports from its Forcados terminal in Nigeria will be delayed this month following Tuesday's attack on its oil pipeline.
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Repsol, Petrobras in Argentina oil exploration deal - Reuters
Spanish oil major Repsol YPF and Brazil's Petrobras will join Argentina's nascent state-owned energy firm Enarsa in oil exploration in Argentina's Atlantic waters, the government said on Wednesday. The accord is the first major commercial venture by Enarsa, created by President Nestor Kirchner in the midst of an energy shortage in 2004 to give the state a greater role in the energy sector after wide-scale privatization in the 1990s. The new consortium, which includes Uruguay's state oil firm Petrouruguay, will explore three blocks in the Colorado Marina basin, 200 kilometers (124 miles) east of Argentina's coast. Enarsa has jurisdiction over underwater hydrocarbons resources in Argentina but has almost no assets and limited operating capacity, analysts say, forcing it to rely on partnerships with private operators to finance projects. "This will be Argentina's first attempt to recover oil income," said Planning Minister Julio De Vido. The accord calls for joint development and production of oil if commercially viable resources are found, which could trigger investments of over $2 billion, Repsol YPF said in a statement. Repsol YPF will be the operator of the group, with a 35 percent stake, and together with the non-Argentine partners will invest between $40 million and $100 million in the exploration stage. Enarsa will also have a 35 percent share while Petrobras will have 25 percent and Petrouruguay 5 percent. The 35,000 square kilometer area to be prospected includes two blocks provided by Enarsa, called CAA-7 and CAA-44, and another provided by Repsol and Petrouruguay called CCM-2. Repsol YPF said it will begin registering information from a 1,000 square kilometer area this year and will start drilling in 2008. "In case of a commercial discovery that allows us to advance to a phase of development and production, the investment could surpass $2 billion," the company said. Enarsa and Repsol YPF also signed a separate 10-year accord on Wednesday to explore other offshore areas in Argentina. Enarsa has been seeking exploration partners at a time when low investment in the energy sector following a 2001-2002 crisis has led to predictions the nation will become a net importer of crude within a few years. Repsol YPF obtains the majority of its crude and gas in the South American nation and in December said it planned to sink $6.7 billion in Argentina overall in the 2005-2009 period. Petrobras, which has experience in producing heavy oil from deep-sea locations, has a producing unit in Argentina that pumps oil in onshore areas.
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China's CNOOC Finds Its Oil - Motley Fool
If at first you don't succeed, move on to the next opportunity. Although China's CNOOC(NYSE: CEO) didn't wrest Unocal away from Chevron(NYSE: CVX), there are other offshore oil opportunities in the sea. CNOOC locked one of them up on Monday, agreeing to acquire a 45% working interest in an offshore Nigerian energy field for nearly $2.3 billion in cash. CNOOC will be buying its license from a Nigerian company by the name of South Atlantic Petroleum -- a company supposedly controlled by a former Nigerian government official. Interestingly, the state-owned Oil & Natural Gas Corp of India originally had a deal in place to buy the same working interest for about $2 billion, but the deal fell through when India's cabinet would not approve it. Assuming that estimates of the amount of recoverable oil and gas in the field prove accurate, CNOOC will be paying about $4.60 per barrel of oil equivalent. That looks cheap, but you should consider some relevant factors. First, the estimates provided by the operator of the field, French energy giant Total(NYSE: TOT), a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation, don't seem to constitute proven reserve estimates -- the standard by which I usually evaluate energy deals. Second, deepwater drilling is tricky and expensive (look at how much Transocean(NYSE: RIG) is getting in dayrates to see what I mean). Finally, you're talking about doing business in Nigerian waters and, by extension, with the Nigerian government -- a government so corrupt that only countries like Myanmar look much worse. Still, if things go right and CNOOC hits its target of about 80,000 barrels per day from this field in 2008, that'll be a significant contribution (the company produces about 410,000 barrels per day now). What's more, energy companies need to add reserves if they are going to grow. Is this is a risky investment? Sure. But it almost goes without saying that you have to take some risks in the oil business if you want to make money.
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State provides details of Venezuelan heating oil aid - Reuters
Venezuela's Citgo Petroleum Corp. will donate heating oil to homeless shelters in Maine in addition to helping Indian tribes and the state's poor heat their homes, state officials said Tuesday. Citgo will sell 8 million gallons on the open market and donate $5.5 million -- tantamount to a 40 percent discount -- that will be used to provide an additional $100 benefit to Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program recipients in Maine. Also, Citgo will donate 120,000 gallons of oil to 40 homeless shelters, officials said. In confirming the deal's details, the Baldacci administration made no apologies for accepting aid from a country whose leader called President Bush "a madman." "The cost of heating oil has risen dramatically and the federal government has failed to provide the resources needed to help Maine citizens. We are grateful to Citgo and the Venezuelan government for their generosity," Gov. John Baldacci said Tuesday. Under the agreement, the discount from the sale of 8 million gallons of heating oil will be converted into a cash donation to the Maine State Housing Authority, which administers LIHEAP, Beth Nagusky, the governor's top aide on energy matters, said Tuesday. Citgo's $5.5 million, combined with $5 million approved by state lawmakers last week, will bring LIHEAP funding to last year's levels, Nagusky said. Furthermore, Citgo is giving 120,000 gallons of heating oil free of charge to homeless shelters, Nagusky said. This oil will be delivered to more than 40 homeless shelters in Maine by their heating oil suppliers. In a separate deal, Citgo will provide discounted heating oil directly to 912 households on or near reservations of the Passamaquoddy, Penobscot, Micmac and Maliseet Indians. That deal is worth $543,000 in savings, tribal officials said. Critics contend Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is simply trying to embarrass Bush by offering aid to Maine, Massachusetts and New York City. Separate deals are also in the works in Rhode Island and Vermont, officials say. In a statement, Bernardo Alvarez, Venezuela's ambassador to the U.S., said the offer of heating assistance is genuine. "This Maine heating oil program represents the goodwill between the people of Venezuela and the United States. Help for those who need it most is a cornerstone of the new Venezuelan economy under President Chavez," he said. Citgo is a wholly owned subsidiary of Venezuela's state oil company. Citgo has more than 160 gas stations across Maine. One LIHEAP participant, Richard F. Smith, 75, of Auburn, said he has no serious qualms about accepting help from Venezuela. The combined LIHEAP benefit from the Citgo and from the state adds up to $10.5 million, which equates roughly to 100 gallons of heating oil at the current average price of $2.36 per gallon. That's enough to heat a home for several weeks, Nagusky said. Even with the extra help, Smith expects to eat into his savings to keep his house warm this winter. "Every little bit helps," he said
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