There is a moment known as the "tipping point", a moment like twilight when day becomes night, a moment like autumn when hot turns to cold. This moment has come to the US occupation in Iraq and in turn to the Bush administration in Washington. The moment has come when victory becomes defeat and triumph morphs into disaster.

This moment is dangerous, horribly dangerous. Dangerous first, of course, for the men and women and children on the ground in Iraq, Iraqi and American, but dangerous too for the Bush presidency and depending what Bush does, dangerous for all the men, women and children of the world.

Bush's speech a week ago demanding that the world cough up soldiers and cash to help with the heavy lifting in Iraq was an official admission of defeat. The president has until November of 2004 to change the impression of failure and win re-election.

Foreign affairs was supposed to take the voters attention form the economy. With the economy not producing jobs, talk of an economic "recovery" is politically irrelevant... The loss of jobs means the loss of votes. The fear of losing jobs means loss of votes. The productivity gains that sweeten corporations' quarterly reports are often achieved nowadays by exporting middle class clerical jobs. That may encourage analysts and brokers but it is political hara-kiri. This is a recovery then that will exist strictly on the financial pages. It is as improbable that the economy will come to Bush's rescue, as improbable as the situation in Iraq evolving into something that reflects favorably on the administration.

During the Clinton years a film with Robert De Niro and Dustin Hoffman, "Wag the Dog" gave its name to the method of starting a war to "change the subject" of public discourse in the midst of scandals and failed policies. "Wagging the dog" in the midst of the ongoing "war on terrorism" and the "Bush Doctrine" of pre-emptive attack is now certain to be the easiest and most favored option for much of the White House policy elite.

What are the most likely choices? North Korea and Iran must surely top the list, perhaps Syria is also a candidate.

What are the "pros and cons"?

• North Korea: North Korea already has the atomic bomb and a superb army with massive artillery capabilities that could turn Seoul and all its inhabitants into a pile of glowing ashes in the space of a few hours without having to use the atomic bomb on the 35,000 American soldiers in South Korea or use its "export class" missiles that could reach Japan. Although it represents a "real" problem, North Korea's real military power puts attacking it out of the class of operation which Emmanuel Todd classes as "micro militarisme théâtral". This is the attacking of relatively helpless countries such as Grenada, Panama, Serbia or Iraq in order to impress the image of America's uncontestable military superiority on the minds of doubters. Korea then is a deserving, but unlikely candidate for the "Wag the Dog" process.
• Iran: has certainly backed groups that the USA considers terrorist organizations, it is perhaps the most dangerous enemy Israel has and Sharon would love for Bush to attack the Ayatollahs. They also appear to be making serious progress in developing an atomic bomb and the United State now has an army on their doorstep. However, the size of Iran's population, its traditional patriotism, the mountainous terrain and the historic fierceness of the people of Persia take invading Iran out of the micro militarisme théâtral class. Last but not least, Russia might not tolerate the removal of what they have considered, since the days of the czars, an essential buffer zone. Not a very appetizing "Wag the Dog" scenario.
• Syria: A dictatorship that sponsors many organizations considered terrorist by the USA, it has a porous frontier with Iraq through which many jihadhists make their way to attack American soldiers. Of Phoenician descent like the Lebanese, the Syrians don't have a great reputation as fighters and their military equipment is out of date. Syria, then, is by far the most attractive of the trio for a "Wag the Dog" adventure.